A key role in economic recovery will be played by lower oil prices and weaker exchange rates;

Regarding the global economy, the US is expected to continue to lead global recovery with a 3% growth over the next year.

Eurozone economy accelerates to a 1% growth over the next year. This is the forecast of the economic team of UniCredit in their last analysis for this year. A key role in the economic recovery will be played by lower oil prices and weaker exchange rates, which stimulate exports.

In CEE there will be a marked need for stronger external incentives. The reason behind this is that export is slowing down due to the slower recovery in the eurozone, the weaker demand from the emerging markets and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Analysts expect that export globally will not grow by more than 3-4% on an annual basis in 2015 and 2016. With a smaller volume of foreign direct investments in the CEE region, many of the countries will rely on EU funds for fresh cash flows into the economy.

In 2015, CEE countries can rely on lower production costs, more flexible labor market and lower tax rates in order to increase their exports, says further the analysis of UniCredit.

Regarding the global economy, the US is expected to continue to lead global recovery with a 3% growth over the next year.

One of the leading economies in Europe - Italy – will return to a positive growth in 2015 after three years of shrinking GDP. The economic recovery will barely reach 0.5% in 2015 (after -0.4% in 2014) and respectively 1.1% in 2016. Italian export will be favored by the weaker euro and the moderate recovery of global demand. This will support a gradual revival of investments in the second part of next year after investor confidence is regained.

According to the economic analysis of UniCredit, one of the main characteristics of 2015 will be the strength of the dollar against most major currencies. It is expected that next year the EUR/USD exchange rate will move around 1.15. There are positive forecasts also regarding the growth of long-term government bond yields.

The key risk to the 2015 outlook is in the form of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Political and economic analysts will keep a close eye also on the upcoming elections in the UK, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

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