The decrease of fuel prices is expected to contribute noticeably to the economy in the next year.

The GDP growth in 2015 will maintain its level of 1.5%. This conclusion was made by Kristofor Pavlov, chief economist of UniCredit Bulbank, during the third edition of the International Economic Forum of Manager Magazine. According to him, the growth will be due partly to the net export, as a result of the positive effects from the decrease of the crude oil prices.

"Whenever the fuel prices go down, we witness transfer of wealth from the countries producing crude oil to those consuming it. As energy amounts to approximately 13% of the household costs, and the share of energy consuming industries in the industrial production is approximately 30%, the decrease of fuel prices is expected to contribute noticeably to the growth in 2015 through foreign trade and increase of the purchasing power of the households", Kristofor Pavlov explained. In some developing economies, though, the growth will slow down because the stabilization of the interest rates in the USA is expected to gather speed. This will cause a slowdown of the developing markets, which rely too much on foreign savings inflow to increase the consumption and the investments.

Evident from the economic analysis of UniCredit Bulbank, the demand for investment goods in China shows signs of weakening, which is bad news for Germany, hence – for Bulgaria, inasmuch as there are companies in Bulgaria that are part of German chains. The increasing geopolitical risks, too, will keep hampering the recovery pace of the global trade, and therefore also the export's positive effect on the recovery process of the Bulgarian economy.

At a local level, the banking sector in Bulgaria will facilitate the recovery process in 2015 through expected further decrease of the deposit interest rates. The lower nominal interest rates of the deposits, in combination with certain weakening of the inflation pressure, will reduce the real interest rates. This will eliminate part of the stimuli for savings, which will result in a lower saving rate, which is supposed to boost household expenditures.

"The strong recovery of the export in 2013, with a little delay, was reflected in the number of the people employed in the sectors oriented towards foreign demand and was among the main reasons for the growth of individual consumption in 2014", Kristofor Pavlov, chief economist of UniCredit Bulbank, explained. For the first three quarters of 2014, the number of the employed grew by 43 thousand people against a year earlier, or by 1.4%, two thirds of this growth being due to the business working mainly for foreign markets.

More information for media:

UniCredit Bulbank, Identity & Communications Department

Ekaterina Ancheva, Phone: + 359 2 9264 963, flbufsjob/bodifwbAvojdsfejuhspvq/ch

Magdalena Ivanova, Phone: + 359 2 9232 528, nbhebmfob/jwbopwbAvojdsfejuhspvq/ch